The Giving Tug-of-War: What Fundraising Trends Tell Us About the Road Ahead
The classic irresistible force paradox raises a fundamental question: What happens when two powerful but opposing forces collide? In today’s fundraising landscape, we are witnessing similar tension. On one hand, year-end giving trends showed resilience, donor value was rising, and consumer confidence hit a two-year high. On the other, policy changes and external events have introduced uncertainty, particularly for nonprofits directly impacted by shifts in government aid and funding.
The big question: What happens when donor generosity meets economic and political ambiguity?
To get a clearer picture of what lies ahead, let’s first analyze what we saw in 2024 and what it tells us about 2025.
A Recap of 2024 Giving Trends
While overall donor counts have continued to decline across the industry, several positive trends emerged last year:
Increased Donor Value: Throughout the first three quarters of 2024, average donation size increased, helping to offset the shrinking donor base.
Higher Consumer Confidence: In November, consumer confidence hit a nearly two-year high, a key indicator that donors felt financially stable enough to give.
Strong Giving Tuesday Growth: Early December saw year-over-year increases of 16% in donor participation and 7% in revenue.
Year-End Giving Strength: December finished strong for many nonprofits, and Fuse is seeing donor retention rates improving and overall revenue per donor rising for many of our partners closing out of 2024.
What These Trends Mean for 2025
On paper, these trends suggest many organizations are well-positioned for growth. But external factors — particularly economic policies, potential tax law changes, and shifts in government funding — could influence donor sentiment.
Here’s what we anticipate:
Donors Will Prioritize Impact: In times of uncertainty, donors tend to be more discerning, giving to organizations that demonstrate tangible, mission-driven results.
Retention Will Be Key: As donor acquisition remains challenging, maintaining and growing relationships with existing donors will be critical for sustaining revenue.
Economic Sentiment Will Shape Giving Patterns: If consumer confidence remains strong, donor value could continue to rise. However, if financial uncertainty grows, we may see donors adjust their giving frequency or contribution amounts.
Break Through the Status Quo: One-sized strategies will not meet the challenges we’re facing today. Critically thinking about the unique approach of individual programs and pushing the envelope with tailored and innovative strategies will be required to stand out in the evolving landscape.
How Nonprofits Can Navigate the Shifts
While we can’t predict every policy change or economic shift, we do know that loyal donors have shown up time and again through some of the most challenging crises. The key for fundraisers in 2025 will be:
Proactive Communication: Keeping donors informed about how their contributions make an impact will build trust and reinforce their commitment.
Strategic Adaptability: Organizations must be ready to pivot quickly in response to changes in the economic or policy landscape.
Focus on Retention: Strengthening donor relationships through engagement, personalized outreach, and stewardship will help sustain giving levels.
Investment in Pipeline: Driving continuous growth to fuel the pipeline with new and reinstated donors will remain critical in a crowded attention landscape.
At Fuse, we’re helping organizations navigate these shifts with data-driven strategies that maximize donor retention, optimize fundraising efforts, and anticipate trends before they happen. If you’re looking for expert insights to steer your fundraising through uncertain times, connect with us here!