[Hot Takes Part 2] Looking to the Future with Rose Colored Glasses

A few weeks ago, I wrote a piece highlighting my optimism around year-end. With all the clients for which we do digital work reporting impressive Giving Tuesday results, I was anxious to see if that foreshadowed an equally impressive year-end. And from what I can see, my optimism was well placed.

Once again, if you are anything like me, you are anxiously awaiting data … but this time around we are waiting for all those generous year-end gifts to be keyed to the database. It will be weeks before some programs get to see their final tally; however, based on the actual data for several of our clients’ digital and direct mail programs, cash reports from clients’ cagers, and anecdotal feedback, things are faring well. So far, I continue to see upward trending, and while digital is driving the majority of growth in most cases, direct mail isn’t slouching by any means.

Since my last post, I received additional insight from two trusted sources. The first was this past Monday, when I enjoyed an update from the M+R Lab in which they said the clients for which they had final digital numbers were split, with exactly half reporting year-over-year increases, and the other half reporting decreases. The very next day, I listened to some friends from Blackbaud, as they presented the donorCentrics Index of Direct Marketing Fundraising for Q3 2021, and I was thrilled to see some of the most recent trends. All of these sources validated what I was seeing in our client’s data … our almighty donors are not only sticking around, but also giving generously.

Last I wrote, I was curious if year-end would finish strong, and though I still await all year-end gifts to be keyed for most of our clients, my ever-increasing gut assures me all is well. I am happy to report that the clients for which I have year-end data are reporting up as much as 20% year over year, and I am pleased that we continue to see an influx of larger gifts.

But I cannot help but think how long this will last?  After all, we have been experiencing a pandemic like no other for the past year and a half. As most of us learned that relationships formed under stressful situations likely will not last, history tells me that donors acquired in an emergency do not stick around.  This is exactly why I am not surprised to see lower retention rates start to creep into my reporting. But I question whether the newest class of donors that came up through this pandemic will follow in the footsteps of prior classes of emergency donors before them. They appear a bit more committed … at least from what I am seeing. But is that the sign of a truly committed donor, or are they simply sticking around a bit longer because the emergency isn’t yet over?

Maybe I’m a romantic, but I believe it’s the former, as I have faith in our clients’ causes and their donors.  But as much as I clearly value my own opinion … I will continue to let the data tell the story. 

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