[Hot Takes Part 3] Tying Up Year-End
Okay y’all, I just processed the last of the data files I was waiting for, so I can now officially tie up 2021. More specifically, I get to see how the stories played out within all the datasets of our clients. As usual, there is a nice variety among their stories, but I am pleased to see the common theme running between them.
As a quick refresher … or cliff notes perhaps for those who missed the first two posts in this year-end series … things were looking pretty good going into year-end. True, consumer sentiment was dropping, cases of Omicron growing, distribution channels were compromised, and postage and paper costs were on the rise …. AGAIN. But Giving Tuesday gave us some hope, suggesting donors’ generosity would see us through these troubled times.
I am pleased to say that December did not disappoint. Donors once again showed up. But now that I have all returns through year-end, I did come away with some additional insights:
For the first time in my career, I can say, not all disaster donors are alike. Actually, I need to amend that and say, not all disasters generate like donors. I do believe that as a class of donors, donors acquired during this pandemic will fall away at higher rates of attrition than classes of donors before them that were acquired in more “normal” times. However, a great deal more of these pandemic donors are staying compared to the class of donors acquired before them in times of crisis or emergency. And I’m optimistic this class of Covid donors will continue to show increased performance metrics as compared to other classes of disaster donors.
To that end, I was pleased to see that two thirds of our clients that showed Covid bumps in 2020 are still performing over 2019 levels in 2021. And in fact, half of those are seeing additional growth over 2020.
Online giving was a boss in 2021! Sure, direct mail is still pretty much king, and in a year when workforces are down, paper/postage costs are up, and deliveries in general are in question, direct mail did a stellar job holding its own. However, in general, I saw the most year-over-year growth in online programs. In fact, average gift, gifts per donor, and even retention are looking good (at least better), and this is helping to maintain the value of these donors.
Remember those $1,000+ gifts I keep mentioning? Where do you think they came from? True, we saw lifts across both channels, but again, I saw the largest influxes in online gifts.
To that end, it is worth noting that I had questioned if increases in higher dollar gifts around Giving Tuesday were just displaced year-end gifts. And guess what, it appears the timing of Giving Tuesday may be significant after all. The program for which I saw with the greatest increase in year-over-year revenue in November 2021, actually saw a decline in year-over-year December revenue. In total, November/December collectively raised more revenue in 2021, but there was definitely some shifting of cash from one pocket to the other. For those interested, 2019 & 2020 GT was in December. But this year, it fell in November, and it will continue to do so for 2022 and 2023. Consider this as you analyze your completed year-end returns and look to your next reforecast.
So, as I wrap up my 2021 reporting, I can’t help but feel optimism for 2022. Yes, I realize we are still dealing with a pandemic. I realize the stock market has crashed. I realize relief checks are coming to an end. And I realize increases in paper and postage costs seem to be never ending. But y’all … the data tells us how our donors are doing, and I love the story it is telling us.
As I finish this post, I realize one full month of 2022 is already in the books. And you know what that means don’t you? We are one month closer to seeing the next round of industry benchmarks! And I can’t wait.
Wishing everyone a safe, healthy, and data-driven 2022!
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